Kansas State women’s basketball has struggled as of late, losing five of their last eight games and two in a row. They have fallen out of contention for the Big 12 regular season title and are in real jeopardy of not hosting the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament.
The loss against Iowa State was a tough one to swallow as it was Senior Night and Iowa State shot 66.7% in the fourth quarter. The latest seed reveal for the top four came out on Thursday evening and K-State was not on it. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has lost eight games in a row with only two of those coming by single digits. Their last win was by six at home on January 27th against a short-handed TCU team.
Krista Gerlich is in her fourth season as the head coach and went to the NIT last season. She played collegiately at Texas Tech where her jersey is retired and was an assistant from 2003-2006.
5-foot-8 sophomore guard Jasmine Shavers leads the team in scoring and steals. She is averaging 14.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game, shooting 39.6% from the field, 33.8% from 3, and 84.4% from the free throw line. Bailey Maupin is a 5-foot-10 sophomore guard who is second in scoring and leads the team in assists. She is averaging 14.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game, shooting 40.1% from the field, 31.7% from 3, and 86.2% from the free throw line.
Jordyn Merritt is a 6-foot-3 senior guard who transferred from Florida and is second on the team in rebounding. She is averaging 8.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game, shooting 39.4% from the field, 25.5% from 3, and 68.4% from the free throw line. Kilah Freelon is a 6-foot-1 sophomore guard who leads the team in rebounding and was a key reserve last season. She is averaging 7.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game, shooting 49% from the field and 79.7% from the free throw line.
Merritt and Freelon did not play in their previous two games because of injury and it is unknown if they will play on Saturday.
Jada Wynn is a 6-foot- sophomore guard who transferred from Colorado and has been inserted into the starting lineup because of injuries. She is averaging 4.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game, shooting 32.4% from the field, 36% from 3, and 85.7% from the free throw line.
Loghan Johnson is a 5-foot-10 freshman who has also had to start because of injuries and has played at least 26 minutes per game in the last six. She is averaging 4.3 points and 2.4 rebounds per game, shooting 38.9% from the field, 24.4% from 3, and 56.4% from the free throw line.
3-point Defense
Texas Tech is a smaller team, especially if Jordyn Merritt is out and they will have three to four players on the court at all times that are below 6-foot. Because of this, Texas Tech likes to shoot a lot of 3s and get to the free throw line.
The Red Raiders ranks second in 3-point rate and third in free throw rate in conference play per HerHoopStats.com, a statistical and analytical website providing rankings and stats on every team and women’s college basketball player. They rank first in the conference with a 78.2 free throw percentage and fourth with a 32.5 3-point percentage. Because of injuries, Jasmine Shavers and Bailey Maupin have attempted almost 50% of the teams’ shots and have scored 57.4% of the points in the past two games. Limiting Shavers and Maupin will be key to winning this game and forcing others to beat you.
K-State is shooting the ball better from three lately even if they rank ninth in 3-point percentage in conference play. Over the past four games, they are shooting 34.5% from 3 and have shot over 33.3% in 3 of the four games. Jaelyn Glenn is shooting 44% from 3 on 6.3 attempts in the past four games and has gotten better offensively. Taryn Sides has stepped up recently and is shooting 42.9 from 3 on 3.5 attempts per game. Gabby Gregory shot it better against Iowa State and they will need more production from her and Serena Sundell who is shooting 38.5 % from three this season.
Turnovers
Texas Tech is one of the worst teams in the conference at taking care of the ball, ranking 12th in the Big 12 with 17 turnovers per game and 13th with a 22.1% turnover rate. They have been better at taking care of the ball lately, with three straight games below a 20.0% turnover rate.
Meanwhile, K-State is fifth in the Big 12 at forcing 16.4 turnovers per game and sixth with a 19.9% turnover rate forced. They need to do a better job at forcing turnovers and getting out in transition to get easy baskets. The offense has been okay for K-State through this rough stretch and getting easy baskets will help with that.
Like K-State, Texas Tech is good at forcing turnovers, ranking sixth in the conference with 16.2 turnovers per game and fifth with a 20.2% turnover rate. It has been three games since they have forced over a 20% turnover rate.
K-State has been one of the better teams at taking care of the ball, ranking second in both turnovers and turnover rate at 14% and 17.4%, respectively. They only have one game in their past six where they have over a 20% turnover rate, and Texas Tech thrives on creating turnovers. Limiting your turnovers is important on the road, especially against Iowa State.
Final thoughts
One of the glaring issues in the past two games has been defensive lapses, especially in pick-and-roll coverage. When Ayoka Lee is in the game, they are going with a deep drop coverage and having her sag off the screener and letting the defender guarding the ball go over the top of the screen. They are setting the screen just below the 3-point line and getting an open mid-range shot.
Kansas and Iowa State have taken advantage of that and are hitting that shot at a good percentage. When Eliza Maupin is in the game, they are choosing to trap or blitz the pick-and-roll so Maupin can use her athleticism to be disruptive. Jeff Mittie mentioned in his postgame press they need to look at switching up their pick-and-roll coverage as it is becoming too predictable. I will interested in how they defend the pick-and-roll against Texas Tech and if they try to attack K-State that way as the past two opponents have.
K-State is in a tough spot, having lost two in a row and not projected to host the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, but there is still a lot of season ahead of them. They can still make noise in both the Big 12 and NCAA Tournament.
Jeff Mittie has mentioned it multiple times, but they need to get their mojo and energy back. They have shown the capability of playing elite basketball on both ends of the floor. At their peak this season, K-State was the No. 2 team in the country and I believe that team is still there somewhere. They need to find it and go on a run in the Big 12 Tournament to have a chance to be a top-four seed again.
