K-State is the No. 3 seed in the Big 12 tournament and had a double-bye while West Virginia had a single-bye as the No. 6 seed. They will face off for the second time this season on Saturday at 8 p.m. on ESPN+.
The Mountaineers won by 15 Friday night versus Cincinnati in the second round and the winner of Saturday's game with play either Texas or Kansas in the semifinals on Monday.
West Virginia finished with a 12-6 conference record and a three-way tie for fourth place with Baylor and Iowa State. K-State finished with a 13-5 conference record and beat West Virginia in the lone matchup this season by nine in overtime at home on February 21.
In ESPN’s latest bracketology, West Virginia is a projected No. 7 seed and K-State is a No. 5 seed. K-State is close to being a top-four seed, which is important because the top-four seeds host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
K-State ended the regular season on a high note, beating Texas Tech by 24 to end a two-game losing streak. Meanwhile, West Virginia ended a three-game losing streak by beating TCU by eight to end the regular season.
Turnovers
Turnovers played a key role in the previous matchup and West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country at turning teams over.
The Mountaineers will run a full-court pressure defense at times and will play a pressure half-court defense that will lend itself to creating turnovers. West Virginia ranks first in the Big 12 forcing 23.1 turnovers per game and has a 27.5% turnover rate per HerHoopStats.com, a statistical and analytical website providing rankings and stats on every team and women’s college basketball player.. In the previous matchup, K-State had 23 turnovers and a 25.3% turnover rate, both were second-worst of the season.
West Virginia creates havoc on the defensive end and is atop the conference in steals per game and steal percentage per Her Hoop Stats. They have the top four players in steals per game with Jaelyn Glenn being fifth.
With Ayoka Lee in the lineup, K-State has been good at taking care of the ball and not allowing teams to get easy baskets. In conference play, K-State ranks second in turnovers per game and turnover rate with 13.7 turnovers per game and a 17.1% turnover rate.
K-State is one of the best offenses in the conference play when Lee is on the floor and not turning the ball over is a key to that. In the last matchup, Lee dominated and had a big game. West Virginia has some size at their forward positions but they aren’t big or strong enough to defend Lee in the post. There needs to be a good balance of getting Lee post-touches without forcing it and turning the ball over.
3-point shooting
Both West Virginia and K-State have struggled with 3-point shooting in conference play. West Virginia ranks 11th with a 30.3 3-point percentage and K-State ranks ninth at 30.9% per Her Hoop Stats.
K-State has shot it better from three in the last six games, making at least 33.3% in five of the last six games. The amount of 3s they are taking has gone down and they have done better at moving the ball on offense to get a good shot instead of forcing up a semi-contested 3-pointer.
In the last matchup, K-State went 4-of-7 from 3 and had 46 two-point attempts which was the second-highest in conference play. West Virginia tends to be aggressive on defense and that should allow for some open shots if K-State moves the ball well on offense.
K-State has the best 3-point defense in the Big 12 allowing a 28.5 3-point percentage. K-State did a good job of defending the 3 in the last matchup, limiting West Virginia to 26.7% on 30 attempts. West Virginia had some key 3-point makes late in the fourth quarter allowing them to get back into the game before they forced overtime. The situational defense by K-State will need to be better, especially on JJ Quinerly and Jordan Harrison, both of whom can score 20+ points on any night.
Free throws
Free throws were a big difference in the previous matchup and the free throw misses by K-State almost lost them the game. K-State was 19-of-31 on free throws in the previous matchup but they were 10-of-20 in regulation. They went 3-of-6 on free throws in the final 14 seconds of the fourth quarter, but the good news is they were 9-of-11 from the line in overtime.
K-State was more aggressive at attacking the basketball in the last matchup and they need to do the same thing again. They need to use West Virginia’s aggressiveness against them and get to the free-throw line.
West Virginia has struggled at keeping teams off of the free-throw line. They rank 13th in opponent free-throw rate at 19.8%. K-State is 6-1 when they have a free-throw rate over 20% with the lone loss coming at Texas. K-State will need to be better at capitalizing at the free-throw line but attacking downhill and getting to the basket is an important step.
Another key aspect of getting to the free throw line is it doesn’t allow West Virginia’s defense to create the havoc it needs to be successful. K-State should not hunt for fouls though, and still, move the ball in order to run good offensive sets.
Final thoughts
Senior guard Gabby Gregory has struggled with injuries throughout the season and has not lived up to preseason expectations. She is playing better in recent weeks especially when it comes to her 3-point shooting. Although it is a small sample size, she is 5-of-12 from 3 in her last two games.
She is still gathering rebounds and providing some playmaking on offense. She is averaging 10.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game, shooting 40% from the field and 78.2% from the free-throw line.
She is still finding ways to make contributions amidst her struggles but has played a lot better recently. Gregory only played 28 minutes in the blowout win against Texas Tech and will have a week off between games. The rest will be important for her because when she is healthy and refreshed she is one of the better guards in the conference. K-State needs Gregory to play at an all-conference level to have a deep run in March.
K-State still has a chance of getting a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. Colorado and Indiana were both top-four seed in last week’s top-16 reveal and they lost in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments.
K-State is the top No.5 seed by most metrics and if they make it to the conference championship game they have a good chance of regaining a top-four seed. Jeff Mittie said in a recent interview with Jaszmin Haliburton on the “Run It Back” podcast that K-State doesn’t worry about seeding and “takes seeds off the bracket because seeds don’t matter.”
K-State seems to be locked into winning the next game and not focusing on what’s in the future or what seed they might be on Selection Sunday. K-State was in contention for a league title for a reason and has a good shot of winning the Big 12 tournament.
